FBI data shows violent crime is down and murder rates are declining in the US
Violent crime in the United States fell by more than 15% during the first three months of 2024, according to data released Monday by the FBI.
The new figures show that violent crime from January to March fell by 15.2% compared to the same period in 2023, while murders decreased by 26.4% and rapes decreased by 25.7%. Aggravated assaults decreased by 12.5% during that period compared to last year, while robberies decreased by 17.8%, according to the data.
The figures released Monday were collected from 13,719 of more than 19,000 law enforcement agencies across the country, according to the bureau.
murder rates are declining in the US
Meanwhile, property crime fell 15.1% in the first three months of this year. Burglaries fell 16.7%, while motor vehicle thefts fell 17.3%. Declines in violent and property crimes were seen in every region of the U.S. In a statement Monday, Attorney General Merrick Garland stressed that the new data “makes it clear that the historic decline in violent crime over the past year is continuing.” “This continued historic decline in homicides does not represent abstract statistics. It represents the people whose lives were saved — people who are still here to see their children grow up, work toward their dreams, and contribute to their communities,” Garland said.
Murder rate in the US is on the decline
The new FBI figures validate a trend identified by some national crime experts: The US murder rate continues to drop at a high rate and could be headed for its largest annual decline ever.
Compared to the first five months of 2023, murders this year have dropped more than 40% in cities including New Orleans, Seattle, Boston, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, according to the research firm AH Datalytics, which analyzes crime figures reported by law enforcement agencies across the nation.
Although more than six months still remain in 2024, “it’s plausible that this will be, by far, the largest one-year decline in American history,” said Jeff Asher, criminal justice analyst and co-founder of consulting firm AH Datalytics.
The firm’s real-time review of 265 cities currently shows a 19% drop in murders nationwide compared to 2023.
Data limitations FII DATA
The preliminary figures in the FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report do come with important limitations. For one, the bureau relies upon data voluntarily submitted by policing agencies.
Crime analysts also say quarterly data are imprecise, as law enforcement agencies have the remainder of the year to audit and correct any reporting errors before final annual figures are published by the FBI.
“We have other data sources that point to the same trends, but the degree of those declines is probably being overstated due to the methodology being employed by the FBI,” said Asher.
‘Interrupting the cycle of violence’
The U.S. murder rate has fallen since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a surge in killings across the country. FBI data showed the number of homicides rose by nearly 30% from 2019 to 2020 — the largest single-year increase recorded by the agency since it began tracking these crimes in the 1960s — and violent crime rose by 5% during the same period.
Criminal justice experts say crime trends are complex, but generally attribute the increase in 2020 to widespread societal disruptions, including the closure of schools, businesses, childcare and community programs. Others pointed to less policing, less public trust and disruptions in social support services, as well as more stress and more guns.
“These are some of the tools we hope to have an impact in reversing or interrupting the cycle of violence,” Asher said. “In a normal year these tools would have been available to us in 2020 or 2021, but they weren’t available. Now, several years later, we’re seeing gun violence levels, homicide levels, coming back to pre-pandemic levels.”